Decision Day is here once again for the Portland Timbers, and once again they have something to play for.
The stakes aren't as dire as years past, when the result would determine if Portland's season ends at the full time whistle or not. But philosophically, it's just as pivotal. And for a time that has been tumbling down the standings like a bag of rocks tumbling down a hill, it's an important opportunity to get things a little more right before the postseason.
The Timbers welcome San Diego FC for the regular season finale at Providence Park (kickoff set for 6pm PT, streaming on MLS Season Pass on Apple TV). Portland's place in the postseason is secured, but their spot in the first round is still up for grabs. The Timbers start the day in 7th, and 7th is the highest they can reach in the Western Conference. The math is simple: a win or a draw clinches 7th, and guarantees that Portland is into the first round of the playoffs outright, avoiding the dreaded Wild Card Play-In Game.
Here's why that matters, and how Portland can make the 2025 regular season a marginal improvement over the past three.
Score. Goals.
Look, I'm a simple footy fan. I don't expect much from my soccer teams in the way of fancy tactics or flow of play. I just want good, hard, play and for them to score a few goals.
It's crazy that the Portland Timbers haven't been able to clear that semi-low bar recently. But yep, that's where we're at.
Portland's offensive production has been out to lunch since the Leagues Cup. Since August 9, the Timbers have scored just eight goals – a rate below one goal per game (0.89 if you want to get exact). So it's no wonder then that Portland have won just once in their past nine games.
If Portland wants to secure a top-seven finish and have any shred of hope of a chance in the first round, they have to start scoring goals. Like, now. The Timbers haven't figured out how they want to attack since Santiago Moreno peaced out, and for all the talent he has shown new DP attacker Kristoffer Velde has yet to find the back of the net. Felipe Mora has gone ice cold, and Kevin Kelsy remains young and inconsistent. David Da Costa hasn't looked quite right, and nobody else has really stepped up to provide offensive production.
At least one of those above factors (preferably many of them) needs to change if Portland is to start scoring. For my money, the safest bet is to get the big men firing. Kelsy clearly has talent, and he has to start getting the ball in positions nearer the goal. Velde providing a greater thrust of danger would help do that, and have the knock-on effect of the Norwegian probably finding his first in Timbers colors.
However it comes, scoring goals is the only thing that can leave me feeling a modicum of positivity coming out of Decision Day 2025.
Why Top-Seven Matters
You may be asking yourself "why should I care about Portland finishing just one place above where they did last year, and probably with the same amount of points?". Which, yeah, I totally get. When this team was firing off results early in the season, it was very easy to have higher hopes than "near the bottom of the Western Conference".
But everyone inside the Timbers organization has repeatedly stated that last year and the Play-In game was simply not good enough. Phil Neville didn't even consider the Play-In the playoffs (I agree), and so, it follows that avoiding the play-in is the bare minimum to consider 2025 some degree of a success.
And it needs to be at least that, because a lot has been invested in this team. Evander was traded, Da Costa came to town, Kelsy, Joao Ortiz, and Velde were all bought, and the general ethos was that this investment was good enough to get this team over that hump and closer to contention.
The former doesn't feel attainable yet, but the latter still is. Which, when you consider certain circumstances, is indeed an achievement. I already mentioned Santi leaving, but last year's leading goal scorer Johnathan Rodriguez wasn't even a factor this year. Portland played the vast majority of the year with just one DP, and it is indeed hard to win many games in MLS in that context.
I'm not here to make excuses – I won't be fully satisfied by the time Portland's season eventually ends, probably under any circumstance (barring the unlikeliest run to MLS Cup the league has ever seen). But after the doldrums and repeatedly failure of the last three years, especially 2024, I need something to hold onto.
Finishing 7th, accomplishing the bare minimum of their goal, would give me a reason to believe that 2026 could maybe be better. Timbers fandom, and let's be honest soccer fandom in general, lives and breathes on complete unearned hope. So I want the team to push for anything that could deliver a speck of that to me. Onward.
