The 2025 Portland Timbers have a big problem. It's not a specific player problem (although those probably exist), and it's not a tactical problem (although that probably exists as well). No, they're big problem right now is that they can't finish.
Before you start giggling like a 12-year-old, I am referring to finishing off games. That is, they can't see out a match when they are on track to a win. It is the biggest reason that the Timbers are on track to finish the season with one of their lowest home win totals since 2022 and the biggest reason they are slugging it out for sixth and seventh place in the Western Conference rather than fighting for the top-four.
Just how bad has it been? Let's dive into the numbers:
Wins that became draws
The obvious example of this is last Saturday's debacle against FC Dallas, when Portland took the lead twice and let it slip just as many times. For a team that would have punched their ticket to the playoffs with a win, and pretty much guaranteed a higher finish than last season, it was embarrassing and immature to see them unable to see out a win at home.
Alex Barnes
But this type of game has been happening all throughout the season. Hell, just look at Portland's third home fixture of the year, a 1-1 draw to the lowly LA Galaxy. Portland had a lead going into the 80th minute, and then conceded an equalizer.
(They also should have had a penalty called at the death, but hey maybe don't let it get to the point where a game is decided on the breath of a referee from PRO).
We've seen it at home even more times than that, including a 3-3 draw with LAFC where Portland had a lead going into the 90th minute, and a 1-1 draw with San Jose where Portland had a lead and a man advantage(!) going into second half stoppage time.
It's happened recently on the road as well, when Portland let one-goal leads in Minnesota and Vancouver slip and had to settle for draws. A draw on the road in MLS is nothing to sneeze at, but those two matches probably should have been wins.
All told, I count six MLS games where Portland had a lead and settled for a draw. That's a 12 point swing, which on its own would have had Portland in third place in the Western Conference (ouch).
Results that become losses
I'm lumping together both wins and draws that become losses here because it's thankfully not a large number, and also because it hurts a little less to talk about both at once.
By my count, there's just two occasions where Portland was on track for at least a point and fell to a loss. Fortunately it's only two, but unfortunately both are brutal.
There was the 0-1 halftime lead in St. Louis which became a 2-1 loss, costing Portland what would have been three valuable road points. And then there was the different but just as deflating 0-1 loss to Real Salt Lake at home which was 0-0 heading into the 80th minute.
Again, it's not that many. But those four points alone would have already clinched Portland a playoff spot and have at worst a seventh place finish pretty much locked up.
So... how bad is it?
If you're the type of person the grieves the type of future we were denied (but I mean, aren't we all at this point?), look away.
By my back of the napkin math, the Timbers have lost 16 points from favorable positions in 2025. Which, yep, at the time of publishing would have Portland in first place in the Western Conference and pushing for the Supporter's Shield. And that's all before you factor in the subsequent loss in points that the teams currently above would have suffered.
So yeah. Ouch.
What is potentially worse, and more grounded in reality, is that three of those results happened within the last month. Just one win in eight games and three separate occasions where you let a late lead slip to settle for a draw is not the form you want to be in heading into the postseason.
In case you went into this needing convincing that this problem was indeed the big problem... there you go. A team that is not nearly as high up the table as it could have been tumbling down the hill and limping into the playoffs: that's the Portland Timbers in 2025.
How does Portland fix it?
First and foremost, by scoring some goshdang goals. For as improved as Portland's defense has been this season (roughly a third of a goal per game better than last year), the reality is that it is not good enough to win games and hold leads on their own. That's especially true when facing desperate opponents, which have marked the past few weeks and will certainly mark the playoffs.
That leaves the Timbers to try to turn one-goal leads into multi-goal leads. All of the examples cited above where Portland had a lead were situations where they led by just one – a second goal or third would have almost guaranteed that they secured the three points. And for what it's worth, this is something that Phil Neville has cited as a huge weakness of his team in recent weeks, calling on them to be more "ruthless" in front of goal.
How do they do that? Well that's what Neville is making the big bucks to figure out. But I would supposit that it comes down to one position: the forwards. The players' whose job it is to score goals are simply not scoring goals right now.
Antony last scored four games ago against the Red Bulls, Kevin Kelsy hasn't scored since August, and Felipe Mora hasn't scored since in an MLS match since May. While Kristoffer Velde has recently done a good job of seemingly everything under the sun except put the ball in the back of the net, he was brought to town to score. Promising moments aside, he has to start doing that soon.
With just two games left, there is not a ton of time to fully right the ship and gain a full head of steam for a playoff run. But there is still time to get the offense firing, and restore just a bit of momentum and optimism ahead of the postseason.
I'm not sure that would fix this big problem, but it sure as heck would make the prospect of October soccer feel better than it has in a long time.
