Timbers Playoff Push: Six games left
The September international break marks the last pause before the all-consuming run in for the 2026 MLS Cup Playoffs. As seems to almost always be the case, the Western Conference is a crowded and tight table, with just five points separating fourth place from seventh.
And the Portland Timbers are smack dab in the middle of it.
The Timbers currently sit in seventh place, toeing the razor's edge between one of the automatic qualifying places and the dreaded play-in game. And make no mistake: the goal for this season is unequivocally to make the playoffs outright. This is as high-stakes of a fall as they come, with potentially some jobs on the line.
Welcome to the Playoff Push.
This week: the anticipated points target with six games left.
Fall Reset
The Portland Timbers' last few months has been pretty rocky. They've avoided a full-on swoon, but have found themselves in a mid-summer slide. In July and August they went 2W-3D-4L in league play. Lowlights include winning just one out of four games at home (including the infamous Evander game) and dropping leads in St. Louis and Minnesota. The result is just nine points from 15 on offer, leaving Portland on 39 points in seventh place in the West.
The good news: PTFC is six points clear of the playoff line. The bad news: they're just three points above 8th and the play-in game (with a game in hand). The worse news: they are well off the pace for a top-four finish in the West, with the likes of Minnesota, Vancouver, Seattle, and LAFC pulling away to duke it out.
And so, the ceiling for Portland has to be recalibrated. At this point, a reasonable target finish should be sixth place, maybe even fifth depending on how things shake out. While this would mean that Portland would miss out on home field advantage for the first round of the playoffs, it does mean that they are in the first round of the playoffs. Which is obviously a marked improvement from the past three seasons.
Chasing 'Dubs
How does Portland solidify their spot in the standings and do that? First and foremost: win all the games remaining at Providence Park. The Timbers have three home matches left this season, and every single one of them has to be seen as a must-win. Nine points would put Portland on 48, and that should get Portland pretty close to finishing in sixth or above.
One reason that is priority number one is that it is wholly doable. Portland has home dates against the New York Red Bulls (just one road win this year), FC Dallas (haven't won a regular season game at Providence Park since literally 2016), and San Diego FC (good on the road, but got stymied by the Timbers in SD a few weeks ago) over the next two months. Portland should be favored in all of those games, and should not settle for anything less than three wins.
The unfortunate part is that while nine points should get Portland close, it might not be enough to fully clinch it. For reference, last season 48 points would have only gotten Portland as high as 8th, and still in the play-in game.
And so, we must look at the three remaining away matches for opportunities to Portland to pick up points. Portland has trips to Houston, Vancouver, and Seattle to close out their road slate this season. Assuming that Portland wins all three of their home games, I would wager they need at probably one or two points out of that trio, with three being a surefire bet, to clinch top-six.
Where could those points come? Houston is probably the weakest team out of the bunch, but Portland hasn't gotten a result there since 2022. I am skeptical that they will be able to pull it off, especially since the Dynamo will likely be playing for their lives at that point.
And so our gaze turns to Cascadia. BC Place has decided not been "our house" no matter where it's in the middle of, and ever since the 'Caps signed Thomas Mueller they look like a scary team offensively. Portland hasn't lost a regular season match in Seattle since 2017, but I am sad to report that the Sounders are still somehow winning a lot, and just won the Leagues Cup. So there's arguments that Portland could pick up a result in either match, especially in the wake of their recent decent road form. But there's also just as many arguments against that happening.
Hitting the Target
Based on all the above, I wager that the Timbers need to pick up 10 points from their final six games to clinch the first round of the playoffs. It's a 1.6 ppg clip, which feels attainable. Easiest path to that is three wins at home + stealing a result on the road. Any additional points would be gravy, and help give some more momentum as Portland hypothetically enters the postseason.
Can Portland do that? Of course they can: they literally started the season at that rate over their first six matches of 2025. Should the new signings (well, the ones that are still healthy) do what they were signed to do, Portland should be able to find a vein of goalscoring form and rediscover that rate of results.
Six weeks left in the season, and six games left for the Timbers. Six games to finally make a return to the playoffs, prove that the club is headed in the right direction, and make the fall mean something.
