With only two games left in the season, Portland goes back home to host the North Carolina Courage.
The match is set for 7 PM PST. You can watch on Prime Video or head to Providence Park to show your support in what will most likely be the last game played at home this year, since the hopes of hosting a playoff match are most likely gone.
Nonetheless, if we look at the bright side, their fate is in their boots. With a win, they're in.
Head-to-head
Historically, these teams have met 28 times, with Portland winning 10 games, the Courage 12, and drawing six times.
The Thorns are currently seventh in the table with 44 points, while the Courage are ninth with 42 points. If the visitors win, they would leapfrog Portland in the fight for a playoff spot.
Regarding form, the hosts are 12W-8D-8L in 28 games and the visitors are 13W-3D-12L this season.
A closer look at their last 10 meetings tells us six have ended in draws and each has won two games. Being the home team has played a part in the scores, with the away side not being able to win any of those last 10 meetings, with Portland doing so back in September 2021.
And speaking of winning at home, Portland will look to end the longest regular-season home winless run in club history, after registering two draws and two losses in their last four matches played at Providence Park. In those four games, they allowed eight goals, which is staggering.
Why so? Because this bad run came immediately after a club record of 13 unbeaten home regular-season matches, where they allowed only seven goals.
On the other hand, the Courage has lost four of its last five matches, going behind in the opening 25 minutes of all four defeats. Moreover, they have lost 11 of the last 12 matches in which they fell behind at any point, including the last nine in a row.
The mentality changes if they're leading. Actually, they've won 13 of 14 games in which they've led at any point this season.
Missing firepower
Despite Ashley Sanchez's outstanding season, she has run a little cold, scoring only twice in her last five games.
Nonetheless, if the winger can't score, she still can make goal contributions. Actually, Ashley recorded her 25th goal contribution last Saturday when she assisted Vilde Bøe Risa, reaching 20 goals and five assists. That leaves her just one behind Temwa Chawinga's single-season record of 26 set in 2024.
For the Thorns' side, Sophia Wilson will miss this match as she serves her two-game suspension following a red card for pulling an opponent's hair in the game against Boston.
Just like Sanchez, she's only scored twice in her last five games but has also recorded three assists. That makes five goal contributions in her last five games. Since Wilson’s NWSL debut in 2021, the Thorns have averaged 1.7 points and 1.8 goals per regular-season match when Wilson plays compared to 1.3 points and 1.3 goals per match when she’s out, according to Opta.
Odds, odds, odds
Can the Thorns still host a playoff game? Potentially yes – but it's a long shot.
Portland has 44 points and two games left, so the most they can reach is 50 points. That's enough to catch Kansas, which is fourth with 47 points. Following them is Angel City and Utah, both with 46 points each.
The Thorns need to finish fourth to host and they would need to win their two remaining games of the regular season. Plus, have Kansas pick up no more than two points from their last two games and have Angel City and Utah each win no more than once.
If Portland draws tonight, they would need even more help, while a loss would end their hopes of hosting.
What if Portland loses tonight? They wouldn't be eliminated from playoff contention but it would make their path significantly more difficult. The Thorns would need to win their last game of the season and most likely get some help from other teams.
But let's not get ahead of ourselves here. We'll cross that bridge if the time comes. Let's not add extra pressure here.
