On Sunday, during the Portland Thorns 2-2 road match at Bay FC, NWSL analyst Lianne Sanderson said the following: "I can't believe the Portland Thorns find themselves in this situation."
In a match where the visitors managed to salvage a draw with a late Caiya Hanks equalizer, it was yet another performance that fell short of expectations.
"We gave them the chances we had," said defender Reyna Reyes. "We just need to be sharper on the ball, cleaner on the ball. We had good spells, it wasn't all bad."
"We could have been more patient, just not sending almost every single time and keeping the ball."
This has been a recurring theme to the season, especially as of late.
After the red-hot start to the season, PTFC were primed to make a run at the NWSL shield contention after the summer international break with the easiest remaining schedule. Instead, it has instead been marred by inconsistency and void of much-needed results.
Now, Portland heads into the final two weeks of the season in seventh place, just two points above the playoff line. They've won just once in their last seven games.
Teams want to enter the postseason playing their best football, and in that regard the Thorns have so far have fallen well short of that.
Here are a few troubling trends that have set the club back:
- Most points given up from winning positions in league history
- Most red cards (4)
- Away record: 5-6-3
- xG differential: -0.3
- xG conceded: 45.7 (5th most in NWSL)
- Winless in last four home games, with a loss to Washington Spirit and Boston Legacy and draws vs Chicago Stars and Houston Dash
- After moving Pietra Tordin from the frontline into the 10 for Olivia Moultrie, there has not been a winger who has been consistent next to Sophia Wilson since the injury
It is also important to mention that PTFC have been successful in many key aspects as well:
- Most penalty kicks awarded (7)
- Tied for least penalties conceded (1)
- Most clearances per match (27.5)
- Second-most shots on target per match (5.8)
- Fourth-most set piece goals (8)
- Goalkeepers have typically made the saves when called upon at fifth-most (3.6 per game)
- Conversion rate has been solid with the seventh fewest chances missed
In order to maintain a playoff spot, the Portland Thorns would have to get past many league shifts that have developed in the 2026 NWSL season.
First off, let's talk about possession. Six of the top nine NWSL teams are all above 50% in possession, where counterattacking PTFC is in 15th with 45.2%. Secondly, no other playoff team including NC Courage have a negative xG differential (-0.3).
Lastly, there is no other playoff team who is starting the youngest central defense duo in the NWSL: rookie Carolyn Calzada and sophomore Jayden "JP" Perry.
As Sanderson said, "I can't believe the Portland Thorns find themselves in this situation."
But... could you? Take a closer look.
Head coach Robert Vilahamn was hired right before the season and missed out on any opportunity to implement his system. Ahead of the season, Portland lost Sam Coffey, and President of Soccer Operations and General Manager Jeff Agoos never found a proper replacement for the superstar. Yes, Nina Nijstad has blossomed into one of best young midfielders in the league, but she is impressively doing it in more of her secondary position.
And the backline? After losing Becky Sauerbrunn seasons ago, there is no longer an undisputed leader or dominant starter at the position, and they've only gotten younger instead.
Even with all of that, PTFC have the opportunity to punch a ticket into the playoffs and make some noise with the firepower they possess. In a wide-open postseason, you have to give yourself the opportunity. If they can't, expect more changes this offseason.
In the most high-stakes game of the season, the Portland Thorns have a chance to book a place in the playoffs or get left-behind by their next opponent, NC Courage.
Can they take care of business at home versus North Carolina and in the finale against Houston with Sophia Wilson back? Or is it back to the drawing board this offseason?
Prematch Media Availability with Head Coach Robert Vilahamn
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